Friday, May 4, 2012

NRL Late Mail - round nine


The first eight rounds of the season have proven that NRL tipping is a tough caper.

But never fear, we've called on the crew at Fox Sports Stats to provide you with a valuable statistical insight into round nine.

Read our predictions based on the key numbers and tell us whether you agree or disagree on the selections by posting a comment below.

The Adjudicator
The Adjudicator NRL

    * R9: 'Not much chop but he tries hard'

Canterbury-Bankstown v Parramatta, Friday, 7.35pm (EST), ANZ Stadium

TAB Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.45, Eels $2.85

Despite their perilous position, this fixture offers a glimmer of hope for embattled Parramatta. The Eels have won eight of their past 11 clashes against the Bulldogs, and they will be encouraged by scoring 83 points in their past three games compared with the Bulldogs' 56. But that's where the good news ends. Pick any number of stats and it makes for some pretty ugly reading for the Eels. Lose this game and the Eels fall to their worst start to a season since 1960, when they went 0-9. If that isn't bad enough, they have also lost 15 of their past 16 away matches. And they have been held scoreless in at least one half of football in six of their eight matches this season. Enough of the Eels bashing, though. The Bulldogs, themselves, have hardly been in great form of late. They have won only one of their past five matches and have only scored a total of 32 points in their four loses this season. Looking for a first tryscorer? Look no further than Josh Morris, who has scored six tries in his past six ANZ Stadium appearances.

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Late Mail: Bulldogs 1-12

North Queensland Cowboys v St George Illawarra, Friday, 7.35pm (EST), Dairy Farmers Stadium

TAB Sportsbet: Cowboys $1.65, Dragons $2.30

St George Illawarra have certainly had the measure of North Queensland in recent years, but that has been away from Townsville. The travel-shy Cowboys have been no match for the Dragons in Sydney since 2009, conceding 87 points while scoring only 34. But it's a completely different story at Dairy Farmers, where the home side have won six of their past eight matches. The Dragons, in fact, haven't picked up two points in Townsville since 2005. But they do enter this clash in good heart after consecutive wins and with the knowledge the Cowboys have lost three of their four home games this season. Interestingly, the team that has led at half-time has won all of the Cowboys' matches this season. Brett Morris has dominated this fixture, scoring eight tries in his past four games, including four on his only appearance in Townsville.

Late Mail: Dragons 1-12

Warriors v Brisbane Broncos, Saturday, 5.30pm (EST), Mt Smart Stadium

NRL: Round Nine
NRL Weekly Preview

    * Greg Alexander's NRL round nine preview

TAB Sportsbet: Warriors $2.30, Broncos $1.65

Something has to break here. The irresistable home force against the road warriors. Home is certainly where the heart is for the Warriors, who have won 16 of their past 22 matches at Mt Smart Stadium, including their past two. They also boast seven wins from their past 10 matches against the Broncos. That success has been built on a solid foundation of defence, defence and more defence; in 13 of those wins, they have conceded 12 points or less. And they'll need to be on their game against a team that averages almost 24 points per game - second only behind Melbourne this season. The Broncos have won all four of their away matches this season and have not conceded more than 14 points in any of those games. Manu Vatuvei could become the leading all-time try-scorer at the venue - ahead of Stacey Jones - if he scores one try.

Late Mail: Broncos 1-12.

Gold Coast Titans v West Tigers, Saturday, 7.30pm (EST), Skilled Park

TAB Sportsbet: Titans $3.75, Tigers $1.28

Tim Sheens has every right to be concerned! Wests Tigers' recent record against Gold Coast Titans certainly doesn't inspire great confidence. They have not only lost two of their past three games against the Titans, but also four of their past five at Skilled Park. Add to that the fact the Tigers are making the equal-fewest linebreaks in the competition and are busting the fewest tackles, then two points, even against a team whose struggles are more pronounced, is no guarantee. There is no certainly no respite from the mediocrity for Titans fans, though. The home side have lost their past five matches at home - and 11 of their past 12. They have also scored the fewest points (106) and fewest tries (18) in the NRL this season, and they have been held scoreless in the first 40 minutes in three of their matches this season. Maybe the home fans can look to David Mead for some salvation. The flying winger has scored 11 tries in his past 11 matches at home.

NRL Line-ups
NRL Lineups new logo

    * Round nine: NRL line-ups for the weekend

Late Mail: Tigers 1-12.

Penrith v Melbourne Storm, Saturday, 7.30pm (EST), Centrebet Stadium

TAB Sportsbet:  Penrith $6, Storm $1.14

Penrith haven't beaten Melbourne since 2005, when they did the double. That's six years of struggle - and this year promises to be no different. Home or away, Melbourne are proving unstoppable. They have won their past three matches at Centrebet Stadium, and five of their past nine. Nine of their past 17 wins against the beleaguered Panthers have been by 20 points or more. To make matters worse for the home side, defeat on Saturday will create an unwanted record of eight consecutive losses at home. The Panthers have lost their past four matches and 12 of their past 15. Worryingy, they have been outscored 94-14 in their past three matches. They looked to have picked the wrong game to try and find some form. Billy Slater, unbelievably, hasn't scored a try in his past three matches after scoring nine in his first five of the campaign.

Late Mail: Storm 13+.

Manly v Canberra, Sunday, 2pm (EST), Brookvale Oval

TAB Sportsbet: Manly $1.18, Canberra $5

If Manly could hand-pick an opponent, Canberra would be a runaway winner. The Sea Eagles, who have won only two of their past six matches, take into the match a record of eight wins from their past 10 against the Raiders. The positives don't stop there for the home side, either. Seven of their past eight wins over the Raiders have been by 13 points or more, while they have also won 16 of their past 19 Sunday afternoon matches at Brookvale. Canberra enter the match desperate to arrest an alarming form slump. They have picked up two points in only two of their past nine matches, and four of their last 16 away games. In the first half of their last three defeats at Brookie, Canberra have leaked 38 points without scoring. Brett Stewart, who has scored six tries in his past four Brookvale appearances against the Raiders, has not played on a losing side at Brookvale since 2008.

Late Mail: Manly 13+.

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights, Sunday, 3pm (EST), Allianz Stadium

TAB Sportsbet:  Roostes $1.57, Knights $2.45

If the alternating win/loss pattern of the past five seasons continues, then you want to be on the Roosters in this one. No team has got a run of consecutive wins since 2007 - and that's nine games. The Roosters may have been ordinary in recent weeks, but they do enjoy facing the Knights at Allianz Stadium. The Knights may be doing the business at home, but they have lost five of their past seven matches on their travels. Points have been hard to come by in this fixture in recent times. Last season, only 50 points were scored in two games - Roosters won 12-10 in round 11, and the Knights won at home 18-10. Anthony Minichiello, who signed a new deal with the club on Friday, has scored 13 tries in 18 games against the Knights.

Late Mail: Roosters 1-12.

South Sydney v Cronulla, Monday, 7pm (EST), ANZ Stadium

TAB Sportsbet:  Roosters $1.57, Knights $2.45

Cronulla may be riding high but they have traditonally struggled to tame South Sydney. The Rabbitohs' best winning percentage (64.3 per cent) over the past eight years has been against the Sharks. To make matters worse for the visitors, they haven't picked up two points at ANZ Stadium against Souths since 2008. But records are meant to be broken, and Cronulla will have no better opportunity to claw back some respect on Monday night. The third-placed Sharks will not only be chasing seven consecutive wins for the first time since 2002 but also four wins in a row on the road. Interestingly, the Sharks have lost their past four matches - and seven of their past eight - after scoring 40 points in their previous match. Greg Inglis has never lost a match against the Sharks - winning five out of five.

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