Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Euro Down on PMI, Concerns About French Elections

The euro was down today on concerns about the outcome of the presidential elections in France. The report that showed the manufacturing index falling to the lowest level in almost three years also had its negative impact on the currency.

Socialist Francois Hollande won the first round of elections, while incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy was the second. The anti-euro far-right National Front, led by Marine Le Pen, was third, showing that resentment against the eurozone is growing in France.

Markit Economics reported that the eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped from 47.7 in March to 46.0 in April. Such low level was last seen in July 2009. Traders hoped that the index would rise to 48.1.

EUR/USD was down from 1.3182 to 1.3149 and EUR/JPY slid from 107.47 to 106.59 as of 10:22 GMT today.

Euro Down on PMI, Concerns About French Elections

The euro was down today on concerns about the outcome of the presidential elections in France. The report that showed the manufacturing index falling to the lowest level in almost three years also had its negative impact on the currency.

Socialist Francois Hollande won the first round of elections, while incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy was the second. The anti-euro far-right National Front, led by Marine Le Pen, was third, showing that resentment against the eurozone is growing in France.

Markit Economics reported that the eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped from 47.7 in March to 46.0 in April. Such low level was last seen in July 2009. Traders hoped that the index would rise to 48.1.

EUR/USD was down from 1.3182 to 1.3149 and EUR/JPY slid from 107.47 to 106.59 as of 10:22 GMT today.

US Dollar Pulls Back as Risk Appetite Returns

Risk appetite is making a comeback in the markets today, and that is sending the US dollar mostly lower. The dollar index is losing ground, and the greenback is lower against many of the majors, especially the European currencies. With better earnings news out of the United States, and with better news in the eurozone, Forex traders are ready for a little risk.

US dollar is pulling back as Forex traders look for better returns, mostly with European currencies and the Down Under currencies. Greenback is down against the euro and the pound right now as the better news results in a return to risk appetite. In the United States, earnings news is driving the markets. Solid earnings data and forecasts for the rest of 2012 have stocks gaining and risk appetite on the rise. This, in term, means a lower US dollar.

On top of that, the euro is getting help from the latest German Ifo data. The business sentiment survey from the Ifo shows that confidence is better than expected. Even though there are concerns about a eurozone recession, it appears that there are still those that are confident in once next. Also helping European currencies is the fact that the IMF has secured Russian funding.

At 14:21 GMT EUR/USD is up to 1.3208 from the open at 1.3137. GBP/USD is up to 1.6132 from the open at 1.6052. USD/JPY is up to 81.6705 from the open at 81.6050.

US Dollar Pulls Back as Risk Appetite Returns

Risk appetite is making a comeback in the markets today, and that is sending the US dollar mostly lower. The dollar index is losing ground, and the greenback is lower against many of the majors, especially the European currencies. With better earnings news out of the United States, and with better news in the eurozone, Forex traders are ready for a little risk.

US dollar is pulling back as Forex traders look for better returns, mostly with European currencies and the Down Under currencies. Greenback is down against the euro and the pound right now as the better news results in a return to risk appetite. In the United States, earnings news is driving the markets. Solid earnings data and forecasts for the rest of 2012 have stocks gaining and risk appetite on the rise. This, in term, means a lower US dollar.

On top of that, the euro is getting help from the latest German Ifo data. The business sentiment survey from the Ifo shows that confidence is better than expected. Even though there are concerns about a eurozone recession, it appears that there are still those that are confident in once next. Also helping European currencies is the fact that the IMF has secured Russian funding.

At 14:21 GMT EUR/USD is up to 1.3208 from the open at 1.3137. GBP/USD is up to 1.6132 from the open at 1.6052. USD/JPY is up to 81.6705 from the open at 81.6050.

Aussie Mostly Soft as Week Draws to a Close

Australian dollar is mostly softer as the week draws to a close. Aussie has been weakened this week by risk aversion and concerns about what’s happening in the eurozone. Also, recently, the news out of China has been somewhat disappointing, and that has been weighing on the Aussie as well, since the Chinese economy is a major support to the Australian economy.

Aussie is higher against the US dollar today, gaining as a measure of risk appetite returns to the markets. US stocks are showing signs of recovery as earnings news spurs bulls forward. Additionally, the high demand for sovereign debt in the eurozone (even though yields are a bit high) is helping to allay some fears for the 17-nation currency region.

Australian dollar is finding some support against currencies like the dollar and the yen today. However, Aussie is lower against the euro and the pound. The mixed performance is to be somewhat expected, though, as European currencies make a comeback. Against the dollar and the yen, the Aussie’s superior interest rate and high return potential is helping.

At 15:30 GMT AUD/USD is higher at 1.0354, up from the open at 1.0344. EUR/AUD is up to 1.2726 from the open at 1.2705. GBP/AUD is up to 1.5538 from the open at 1.5520. AUD/JPY is higher at 84.64, up from the open at 84.43.

Aussie Mostly Soft as Week Draws to a Close

Australian dollar is mostly softer as the week draws to a close. Aussie has been weakened this week by risk aversion and concerns about what’s happening in the eurozone. Also, recently, the news out of China has been somewhat disappointing, and that has been weighing on the Aussie as well, since the Chinese economy is a major support to the Australian economy.

Aussie is higher against the US dollar today, gaining as a measure of risk appetite returns to the markets. US stocks are showing signs of recovery as earnings news spurs bulls forward. Additionally, the high demand for sovereign debt in the eurozone (even though yields are a bit high) is helping to allay some fears for the 17-nation currency region.

Australian dollar is finding some support against currencies like the dollar and the yen today. However, Aussie is lower against the euro and the pound. The mixed performance is to be somewhat expected, though, as European currencies make a comeback. Against the dollar and the yen, the Aussie’s superior interest rate and high return potential is helping.

At 15:30 GMT AUD/USD is higher at 1.0354, up from the open at 1.0344. EUR/AUD is up to 1.2726 from the open at 1.2705. GBP/AUD is up to 1.5538 from the open at 1.5520. AUD/JPY is higher at 84.64, up from the open at 84.43.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Study: Homophobes are pretty gay

Interesting, but follow the link and read the fine print and you’ll see that it’s really more a study of the effect of authoritarian parenting on sexuality than some sort of unified field theory about “homophobia.” In fact, it’s not fully clear to me from the news summary what would qualify as “homophobia” for purposes of the research. Sounds like they’re chiefly concerned with visceral dislike for gays, but I’m not sure; maybe, given the obvious political uses to which these results will be put, polite opposition to gay marriage also qualifies.

In which case, it’s a shame that we have a homophobic president, huh?

To explore participants’ explicit and implicit sexual attraction, the researchers measured the discrepancies between what people say about their sexual orientation and how they react during a split-second timed task. Students were shown words and pictures on a computer screen and asked to put these in “gay” or “straight” categories. Before each of the 50 trials, participants were subliminally primed with either the word “me” or “others” flashed on the screen for 35 milliseconds. They were then shown the words “gay,” “straight,” “homosexual,” and “heterosexual” as well as pictures of straight and gay couples, and the computer tracked precisely their response times. A faster association of “me” with “gay” and a slower association of “me” with “straight” indicated an implicit gay orientation.

A second experiment, in which subjects were free to browse same-sex or opposite-sex photos, provided an additional measure of implicit sexual attraction.

Through a series of questionnaires, participants also reported on the type of parenting they experienced growing up, from authoritarian to democratic. Students were asked to agree or disagree with statements like: “I felt controlled and pressured in certain ways,” and “I felt free to be who I am.” For gauging the level of homophobia in a household, subjects responded to items like: “It would be upsetting for my mom to find out she was alone with a lesbian” or “My dad avoids gay men whenever possible.”

Finally, the researcher measured participants’ level of homophobia — both overt, as expressed in questionnaires on social policy and beliefs, and implicit, as revealed in word-completion tasks. In the latter, students wrote down the first three words that came to mind, for example for the prompt “k i _ _.” The study tracked the increase in the amount of aggressive words elicited after subliminally priming subjects with the word “gay” for 35 milliseconds.

The theory is that kids with gay tendencies who grow up in very strict households may be so frightened of mom and dad’s disapproval that they compensate by developing a passionate aversion to gays themselves. Again: Interesting, but it’s a theory limited to a specific type of “homophobe,” not a universal explanation for why all critics of gays believe as they do. (As Live Science notes, “Ryan cautioned … that this link is only one source of anti-gay sentiments.”) Meanwhile, I’m curious why they didn’t use a more conclusive test of arousal, maybe involving, er, strategically placed sensors, to see which sex a given subject was most attracted to. Could be that that wasn’t possible with this test group simply because, if there were secretly gay members among them, they might have objected to a more invasive test for fear of being found out. But I don’t know. To the psychologists in our readership: How reliable are tests of “implicit” sexual attraction like this?

Exit question: Would the “authoritarian parent” explanation for vehement dislike of a particular group apply more broadly than just to sexuality? If, for instance, you’re raised in an authoritarian household that’s strictly religious, would a child who finds himself doubting his faith compensate with a powerful contempt for atheists/agnostics? If you don’t like that example, use a political scenario instead: In an authoritarian household that’s stridently liberal or conservative, would a kid who finds his sympathies trending the other way grow to hate that group to please his parents? (If so, does that mean some “true conservatives” have — gasp — latent liberal tendencies? And if so, doesn’t that mean the RINOs are the real conservatives? Good lord, suddenly I feel like the lost heir to Reagan.) I can think of reasons why sexuality might be unique — it forms earlier in most people than firm political/religious sympathies, it’s “felt” rather than thought through and therefore less amenable to being rationalized, and the social taboo against being gay is greater than the taboo against being liberal/conservative or atheist/agnostic (although maybe not dramatically so for nonbelievers in some communities). But I don’t know. This is why I ask.